The beauty of nature is at its best during monsoon season. The dusty brown leaves turn green, the soil is moist and rejuvenated. The season cools down the hot warm earth. The farmers rejoice expecting healthy crops. Monsoon makes everyone happy. The cozy sleepy Sundays with rain and cool breeze help to dilute the stress. Monsoon in India starts with rain in southern Kerala coast from around June 1. The rainfall covers rest of the regions by mid-June.
The IMD( Indian Meteorological Department ) announced that the rainfall this year will be normal. This announcement by IMD is a big relief to the farming sector. The rainfall in the past few years was below normal. The IMD published the country might experience 97 percent rainfall of LPA in June-September.
LPA is average rainfall the country had experienced from 1951- 2000. The LPA is estimated to be 89 percent. A rainfall ranging from 96-104 percent of LPA is considered as normal. According to the IMD, the El Niño is also expected to be weak at the start of monsoon.
The IMD said further updates will be provided after region-wise analysis of monsoon. The Agriculture Minister SK Pattnayak said this would result in record production of foodgrains. The overall foodgrain production will rise to 277.49 metric tons from 275.11 last year. The Minister further said that the normal monsoon will boost the Kharif crops sowing. He also said any deficiency in rainfall in the southern peninsula and northeastern regions would recover.
Predictions of RBI and the Government
The RBI said the increase in monsoon compared to the previous year will increase the rural income. This will further lead to higher standard of living among the people. In its monetary review, the RBI stated that the food inflation should remain under check. Food accounts for 50 percent of Indias consumer price index. CPI measures the changes in the market price of the basket of goods and services purchased by the households. A bumper crop will make the prices of foodgrains stable and will help to boost the economy. The Government supports the farmers with incentives and staining its fiscal deficits. A normal or good monsoon will help to reduce such expenses of the Government.
With the state and union elections coming up, the Ministers expect to fetch votes from the farming communities. The monsoon will result in higher output and higher income to the farmers. With an increase in rainfall, India can produce commodities like sugar. India started to import sugar in the recent years due to low rainfall. A reduction in import will bring about a huge in the balance of payment of the country.
A good rainfall will be beneficial to many industries also such as Agrochem, fertilizers, irrigation equipment and seeds. A private weather forecasting agency, Skymet anticipates the rainfall to be 100 percent of LPA. The agency also said there is zero possibility of drought in the country. In other words, it is a positive sign for the economy. The GDP of the country may rise from 6.6 percent to 7.5 percent in 2018-19.
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